M-PESA, the pioneering mobile money platform by Safaricom, is an unstoppable force in Kenya’s digital economy.

Now in its 18th year, M-PESA has evolved into more than just a payment tool; it’s a financial ecosystem supporting millions of Kenyans across all sectors. Yet, as M-PESA surges forward in its home market, its trajectory in Ethiopia tells a very different story.

The Kenya Powerhouse: M-PESA at Full Throttle

Safaricom Kenya’s financials for the year ending March 2025 paint a picture of robust health and rising dominance.

M-PESA accounted for KShs 161.1 billion in revenue, a 15.2% year-over-year (YoY) growth representing 44.2% of the company’s service revenue.

Key growth metrics in Kenya include:

1. 35.82 million one-month active M-PESA users (+10.5% YoY)
2. 37.92 chargeable transactions per customer/month (+20.3% YoY)
3. KShs 38.29 trillion in transaction value (+1.6% YoY)
4. Over 1.15 million Pochi La Biashara tills, showing a massive 81.7% YoY increase

M-PESA in Kenya is not just about person-to-person payments. It has become critical infrastructure for:

1. Micro- and small-business operations
2. Government cash disbursement (e.g., Inua Jamii)
3. International remittances
4. Microloans (Fuliza, merchant overdrafts)

This growth is supported by a massive agent network of 298,890 and a merchant base exceeding 675,000 active Lipa Na M-PESA outlets.

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Ethiopia: The Exception to the M-PESA Rule

Despite strong commercial momentum across voice and data in Ethiopia, M-PESA has yet to gain similar traction.

Safaricom Ethiopia’s FY25 performance reveals the contrast starkly:

1. M-PESA revenue: KShs 12.5 million, a shocking 86.4% drop from the prior year
2. M-PESA transaction value: KShs 20.65 billion, down from KShs 24.52 billion (–15.8%)
3. M-PESA earnings and volume metrics trail far behind Kenya.

While voice and data services in Ethiopia grew strongly, mobile data revenue alone grew 35.8% YoY to KShs 5.66 billion, and voice revenue rose 14.1%. M-PESA’s weak uptake indicates foundational challenges.

Why the Divergence?

Several factors contribute to M-PESA’s sluggish start in Ethiopia:

1. Late Market Entry

Safaricom only launched M-PESA in Ethiopia in August 2023, nearly two decades after the Kenyan debut. The brand still lacks embedded trust and familiarity in the Ethiopian market.

2. Regulatory Hurdles

While Safaricom has secured a mobile money licence, Ethiopia’s tightly regulated telecom and financial sector has been slow to adapt to the demands of a full-fledged mobile money ecosystem.

Recent reforms, such as the launch of the Ethiopian Securities Exchange (ESX), signal progress but remain in early stages.

3. Foreign Exchange Crisis

The Ethiopian Birr depreciated by 117.1% YoY, a crippling blow to any foreign-backed digital service priced or settled in local currency. This depreciation slashed M-PESA’s returns when converted to Kenyan shillings, despite increasing usage volumes.

4. Limited Use Cases

In Kenya, M-PESA supports everything from groceries to global remittances. In Ethiopia, the platform is just entering basic payments, such as fuel. Credit, savings, and insurance features remain aspirational rather than operational.

The Road Ahead: Patience and Positioning

Safaricom remains optimistic. The company plans to double its Ethiopian base stations to 6,000 by 2030, extend M-PESA use cases, and deepen financial inclusion in a youthful, underbanked population with 70% under 30 years old.

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Projected earnings before interest and taxes losses in Ethiopia for FY26 stand at KShs 23–26 billion, but the Group has affirmed its long-term investment horizon.

The goal is to break even in Ethiopia by FY27 and mirror Kenya’s M-PESA success over the next decade.

Final Thoughts

In Kenya, M-PESA is eating everything: banks, cash, wallets, and even jobs. It has redefined economic participation.

But in Ethiopia, M-PESA is still finding its footing, and the steep drop in FY25 revenue is a clear reminder: even giants must crawl before they run in new territories.

Ronnie Paul is a seasoned writer and analyst with a prolific portfolio of over 1,000 published articles, specialising in fintech, cryptocurrency, and digital finance at Africa Digest News.