Kenya’s economic journey over the past year has been a rollercoaster ride. In July 2023, upon Governor Kamau Thugge’s assumption of leadership at the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), the nation faced a trio of challenges: soaring inflation, a weakening shilling, and diminishing foreign exchange reserves.
Public anxieties were high, with the cost of basic necessities like maize flour and fuel skyrocketing.
Governor Thugge took swift action, raising the benchmark interest rate to 10.5 % from 9.5%, the highest rate since July 2016. He also revealed that the local currency had been overvalued for several years, a position that had been denied by the previous regime despite several warnings from the International Monetary Fund and local monetary analysts.
The CBK’s measures were complemented by the government’s fiscal efforts. Import duties on essential food items like maize, wheat, rice, and sugar were slashed, and fertilizer subsidies were introduced to boost domestic food production.
These combined efforts yielded significant results. Inflation, which had peaked at a staggering 9.6% in October 2022, has shown a steady decline, settling at a much more manageable 5.7% by March 2024. The shilling, once on a downward spiral, has also found stability against major currencies.
The Kenya shilling opened the year 2024 trading at 157.82 and by the close of April 11, 2024, had appreciated by 17.4 per cent to the 130.35 level. Today, 1 United States Dollar equals 133.50 Kenyan Shilling.
Despite the global turmoil caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and other factors, the nation’s economy is projected to stay above both regional and global averages in 2023 and 2024. Additionally, the recently issued infrastructure bond attracted huge interest from offshore investors while earlier issuances continue to elicit offshore investors in the secondary market.
However, amidst this cautious optimism, a shroud of uncertainty hangs over Kenya’s future. The nation’s high debt levels remain a cause for concern. Delays in achieving fiscal consolidation targets, a crucial step towards reducing the government’s budget deficit, could exacerbate Kenya’s debt vulnerabilities, especially considering the high cost of debt servicing.
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Climate change also poses a significant threat. Ever since the onset of the rainy season in March, Kenya has experienced some of its most disastrous weather conditions in years.
Heavy downpours have led to severe flooding, resulting in a tragic loss of at least 228 lives and displacement of thousands. All schools have also been shut indefinitely by the government.
The global economic slowdown in developed nations could also cast a long shadow on Kenya’s recovery. Slower growth in these countries could translate into a decline in tourism revenue, exports, and remittances – all vital sources of foreign exchange for Kenya.
Rising global commodity prices, fueled by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, could further tighten financial conditions, weaken external balances, and exacerbate inflationary pressures within Kenya.
A beacon of hope emerged recently with the news of a $1 billion disbursement expected from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) next month. This financial injection comes at a critical juncture, with President William Ruto expressing confidence in securing the IMF funds, highlighting the positive trajectory of the Kenyan economy.
The successful issuance of a $1.5 billion Eurobond earlier this year, which helped alleviate anxieties surrounding a potential default on a maturing bond, further bolstered this confidence. Timely financial support from the IMF and the World Bank, including a $941 million loan from the IMF in January, has also proven instrumental in stabilizing the situation.
